Like Miguel Lebre de Freitas in the post below, I have also been exploring the Campos e Cunha hypothesis for Portugal's stagnation. And I am growing increasingly convinced. Miguel gives you some numbers: here is the one plot that makes the point for me, where TOT are terms of trade, RER-ULC is the real exchange rate using unit labor costs against 35 developed economies from the AMECO database, and REC-CPI is the real exchange rate using consumer price indices from the CPI database.
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