Probably the most important prediction of the current challenges of the Portuguese economy - and including many suggestions for reform: the address delivered at the 2006 Bank of Portugal conference on economic development by Olivier Blanchard, then at the MIT, now at the IMF.
The paper was subsequently published by the Portuguese Economic Journal in early 2007. The abstract is:
"In the second half of the 1990s, the prospect of entry in the euro led to an output boom and large current account deficits in Portugal. Since then, the boom has turned into a slump. Current account deficits are still large, and so are budget deficits. This paper reviews the facts, the likely adjustment in the absence of major policy changes, and examines policy options."