tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3120478448417742445.post8990706394188057733..comments2024-03-24T06:35:14.281+00:00Comments on The Portuguese Economy: A Little Common SenseEditorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16779405217168307855noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3120478448417742445.post-87296745436332571992020-10-20T07:47:51.765+01:002020-10-20T07:47:51.765+01:00Are you searching for a very genuine loan at an af...Are you searching for a very genuine loan at an affordable interest rate of 3% process and approved within 4 working days? Have you been turned down Constantly by your Banks and other financial institutions because of bad credit? Loans ranging from $5000 USD to $20, 000, 000 USD maximum LOANS for Developing business a competitive edge / business expansion. We are certified, trustworthy, reliable, efficient, Fast and dynamic for real estate and any kinds of business financing. Contact us for more details and information.<br />Thanks & Regard<br />Call/Whats App 918929509036<br />(Whats App) 918929509036<br />Dr James Eric Finance Pvt Ltd<br />E-mail: financialserviceoffer876@gmail.comfinancialserviceofferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11310134613292993835noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3120478448417742445.post-74589826219106434822010-05-09T23:04:33.413+01:002010-05-09T23:04:33.413+01:00Its an interesting point. I would add the followin...Its an interesting point. I would add the following.<br /><br />i) If we run recurrent fiscal deficits and have an on balance sheet debt of 80% over GDP (much higher than Argentina in 2002 and Russia in 1998 even if we dont take into account the huge off balance sheet vehicles the government has created) we are on the edge of the abyss always and whenever our creditors decide to.<br /><br />ii) In line with TST comment more than the lack of real growth our biggest problem today is the lack of nominal growth, furthermore the lack of instruments to create inflation or deflate our economy (currency) to make it more competitive to export therefore boosting growth. We dont have monetary policy anymore and we dont have fiscal policy flexibility.<br />iii) Our savings rate is and has been quite low in recent years adding to an already horror movie.<br /><br />Bottom line I dont think there is way out unless the ECB starts monetizing our debt through QE and Portugal deflates its economy like Greece is being forced to do and Ireland has done earlier. I think that will occur shortly. Of course by using that route the ECB will be socializing the irresponsibility of southern europe countries, Belgium, France and Austria at the cost of responsible countries, Germany and Nederlands. This will lead to obvious tensions in the eurozone.<br /><br />Super interesting times we live in. Not good ones unfortunately.<br /><br />http://montyhallparadox.blogspot.com/Hayekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04000241613633830558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3120478448417742445.post-3810839457672945442010-04-30T19:11:26.748+01:002010-04-30T19:11:26.748+01:00A little common sense is welcome...
First, once y...A little common sense is welcome...<br /><br />First, once you don't have money, it gets surprisingly easy to distinguish between nice to have and need to have. You get your common sense back. <br />Large public works will be stopped, more than suspended. And we will remain surprisingly close to Europe, despite fears that with no TGV or no new airport we would plunge deep into isolation.<br />With no crisis, there would be no way to stop them. Governments would always fight for them, opositioners would always fight them, but Governments are always in majority and would eventually win.<br />A crisis can be worthwhile.<br /><br />Second, common sense tells non-Eeconomicists that the only sustainable budget deficit value is zero.<br />But Economicists seem to accept peacefully a consensus that says that a value of, say, 3% is suitable, even virtuous, and non-Economicists don't dare to disclose their ignorance by asking them "why?".<br />With no money available, a zero budget deficit will appear, not only suitable, but the only possible value.<br />And we will remain surprisingly alive, despite fears that with no budget deficit nothing would work.<br />If we learn this lesson, we will be able to saved the value many airports and trains in the future.<br />A crisis can be realy worthwhile.Manuel Vilarinho Pireshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11951835330952010496noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3120478448417742445.post-45617326208268733112010-04-30T15:16:43.160+01:002010-04-30T15:16:43.160+01:00There is substantial difference between paying int...There is substantial difference between paying interests rates of 20% on government debt when the inflation rat is even higher, as was the case of Portugal or Spain in the 80s, and paying an interest rate of 6% when the inflation rate is around 1-2%. In the first case the real long-term interest rate implicit in the debt could even be negative, actually a good deal for the government. In the second case the real interest rate is extremely high, a ruinous outcome for the government and for the economy.TSThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06580738425763025197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3120478448417742445.post-40211245352536443922010-04-30T10:23:56.358+01:002010-04-30T10:23:56.358+01:00A question - these interest rates are about debt ...A question - these interest rates are about debt denominated in escudos or in foregn currency?Miguel Madeirahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07382939732567489809noreply@blogger.com